EP237: The Real Estate Rollercoaster of 2024

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Did you know that at the end of 2023, the Federal Reserve decided to increase interest rates dramatically? Did your heart just drop? Okay, we lied, that’s fake news. But interest rates HAVE been on a lot of people’s minds lately (including ours), so it’s worth talking about and understanding.

But first, we want to tell you about our friend Sarah. Sarah is a young professional working in advertising. After years of careful saving, she was overjoyed when she finally secured a mortgage for her dream home. But just as she was about to sign the final papers, interest rates spiked suddenly and she watched her dream drift away right in front of her eyes. Her new monthly payments would strain her budget to the breaking point. 

Sound familiar? It’s unfortunately something that has happened to quite a few people over the past couple years. To catch you up on what happened, between March 2022 and January 2024, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates a total of eleven times. Which is absolutely insane when you think about it. 

Let’s talk next about why. You see, COVID changed the world in more ways than just awareness about public health and disease. It had a very serious and very real impact on our economy, and these changes are things we continue to deal with today.  

Basically during COVID, as businesses shut down and people lost their jobs, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates as low as 0% so that businesses could secure loans, the economy could stabilize, and the job market would grow. 

As this idea of “maximum” employment levels as they call it was achieved, inflation started rearing its ugly head. Inflation, which basically just means that the price of everything is rising, has continued to be a problem, and the suggested solution was raising interest rates. Over, and over, and over again.

Not only has this impacted the cost of food and energy, it has also affected home prices and the real estate landscape in general. 

You see, a lot of homeowners are hesitating to put their houses on the market because they’re worried about getting stuck with higher mortgage rates if they move. Because of this, there’s not as many existing homes up for sale, which means buyers are having to turn more to new construction options or continuing to rent. 

But the end is in sight! Or so it seems. It does appear that there might be some rate relief in the future, but the exact specifics remain unclear. 

Jerome Powell made it clear that each decision will be made as we go along, and he’s not leaning towards a cut in March. At the same time, the Fed dropped any mention of potential rate hikes from their official statement. 

While they were doing that, they did acknowledge that the risks to meeting employment and inflation targets are evening out, but they’re ready to tweak their monetary policy if any new risks pop up that could throw those goals off track. 

So basically any impact that might be had won’t be immediate, and it’s not going to be the huge relief that has been hyped in the media and by some market optimists. 

In fact, if you take a look at this chart, the rate change in basis points has been all over the palace. Basis points, by the way, are a unit of measurement in finance as especially when talking about interest rates. 

In common terms, one basis point is equal to 1/100th of 1%, or 0.01%, which are used to show a change in value or rate. So when you look here, you can see that over time, the Fed basically raised rates anywhere from 25 basis points all the way to 75 in the middle of 2022.

Now, we aren’t telling you all this to be gloom and doom, but we think it’s so important to understand what’s really going on and also to see through the haze of the hype of lowering interest rates in the near future. 

The simple truth is that you, us, and even finance experts are all in the dark about what the future holds and just when and how basis points will drop in the future.

We’re going to pause here and tell you a little story.  In 1835, the New York Sun newspaper published a series of articles about life on the moon. 

The stories claimed that renowned British astronomer Sir John Herschel had made groundbreaking discoveries using a powerful new telescope. According to the articles, Herschel had observed lush vegetation, strange animals, and even humanoid creatures living on the lunar surface.

As you can imagine, the articles caused a great deal of excitement. After all, what’s more exciting than the idea of life on the moon?

The anticipation for more was built and built, until one day the truth came out and the public discovered that the entire story was a hoax. Sir John Herschel had made no such observations, and the articles were entirely fabricated by the New York Sun.

Now the reason we tell you this is not to make you think that all sources of news are evil and wrong and sources of false information. 

We actually think that the news is wonderful, and an important way to stay connected to the world around us. But we do want to highlight the power of the press to shape public opinion and generate anticipation for sensational stories.

You can see where we’re going with this, right? The state of the economy right now makes for pretty sensational news, and the rise and fall of interest rates is something that a lot of us are watching closely. So don’t believe everything you read or see on TikTok. 

The other interesting thing here is that this is actually a lose-lose situation for the Feds. If they reveal their plans too soon and openly suggest they anticipate substantial interest rate cuts at frequent intervals, it could totally undo any progress they’ve made in reducing inflation. Increased anticipation could then trigger significant market fluctuations. 

But if they remain tight-lipped, they risk unintentionally pushing the US economy toward a recession as businesses and real estate sectors struggle further. 

This sticky situation will actually influence the strength (or weakness) of the real estate market for the remainder of 2024 and beyond.

While the Fed has hinted at rate cuts in 2024 and beyond, it’s important to be aware that there’s actually a total lack of agreement here among economists. 

Which is a pretty big deal when you think about Bankrate’s Economic Indicator poll, which shows that 93% of experts expect the Federal Reserve will decrease borrowing costs during the year. 

The reality is that economists are split on the timing of these cuts, with 47% predicting reductions in the first half of 2024, another 47% foreseeing cuts in the second half, and nearly 6% believing the Fed will maintain the current rates until 2025.

So basically we can all agree to disagree here and agree that at the end of the day, the future is unpredictable. 

No matter what, all experts do seem to agree that the Fed will gradually lower interest rates as inflation targets stabilize back to the 2% goal. This suggests that the ultra-low borrowing costs seen during the pandemic won’t make a swift return.

But for real guys, we probably shouldn’t put too much stock in economists’ predictions anyway. After all, they’ve never had a stellar track record with their forecasts. They seem to be better at hindsight than foresight. Not exactly who we would want to bank on, pun intended. 

So basically, expect interest rate adjustments in 2024. Those who adapt quickly can seize a rare opportunity. 

Existing property owners may face lower cash flow and selling prices short-term, but foreclosure rates remain low, more on that later. And for buyers, lower interest rates mean reduced mortgage payments and the chance to purchase properties at significant discounts compared to peak prices in 2021.

The key here is to act fast; just like the Apple Vision Pro, these limited-time opportunities won’t last long.

2024 Risks and Challenges

Okay, so you’re excited about the real estate market, and you can’t wait to get started. That’s awesome! But we wouldn’t be your real estate BFF’s if we didn’t warn you about some very real risks and challenges that 2024 poses. 

First up, you’ll want to think about overall market dynamics: Within the US, a combination of factors, including rising expenses, supply chain disruptions, and population shifts, presents both opportunities and challenges in various sectors.

Inflationary pressures have also driven up construction costs, resulting in  paused multifamily and commercial property projects. This just makes the existing housing shortage even worse, compounding the challenges faced by the real estate market.

When you think about the aftermath of the Great Recession of 2008-2010, we saw a significant decline in new construction.

Now, over a decade later, the continuing impact of those events continues to affect us, and no matter how much of an optimist you are, the current situation is only going to get worse. All you have to do is take a look at this chart and you will realize that we have a very serious supply issue that isn’t going to change overnight. 

Depending on the source cited, there’s currently a shortfall of anywhere from 3 to 5 million units. And as numerous construction projects experience delays or halts, it’s unlikely that this gap can be filled in the near future.

While there’s discussion in the news about a crash in rent prices, this also might be an exaggeration. Rent growth is slowing down on a national scale, but certain areas are still experiencing some level of increase. 

When you take a moment and think about the basic principles of supply and demand, the multifamily sector remains promising in the long run due to these shortages, so our focus is on looking ahead to 2025 and beyond.

Look, it’s hard to predict the future, but we’re feeling pretty positive about specific parts of the country. Even though the overall US population isn’t expected to grow much, this isn’t true in all areas. And when it comes to population growth, immigration plays a big role. 

Unlike places like Japan and China, where populations are shrinking, the US is getting a boost from incoming migrants. 

Take a look at this map – we’re actually  seeing lots of Americans moving within the country too, especially heading towards the sun belt. Whether this is a coincidence or not, it’s also noteworthy that many states experiencing a population shift happen to have lower or no state taxes, and they also tend to have more landlord-friendly policies in place. 

Strategic Investing in 2024

Do you like truffles? Maybe truffle fries? Well, if so, do you have any idea where these truffles come from? Truffle hunting pigs are trained to use their sense of smell to locate the fungi known as truffles. Truffle hunters actually train the pigs from a young age, rewarding them with treats when they successfully find truffles. 

Just like the truffle hunting pigs, you too can seek out a different kind of treasure. Our goal for you is to uncover ways to find promising possibilities amidst the chaos, like investing in areas where populations are booming or sectors that are holding steady despite current trends. You see, real estate, at its core, is pretty straightforward for us. We keep tabs on where people are moving and then make it our mission to find properties at reasonable prices in those areas.

But it’s not all fun and games; it’s important to be strategic too and to strategically diversify your assets. By spreading out your investment portfolios, you  can reduce risks associated with specific market segments or geographical locations.

Let’s take a closer look at the net migration map. Texas, for example, might not show an impressive net migration percentage at first glance. But when you factor in the sheer volume of people moving there, it becomes clear that Texas is actually experiencing significant growth. In fact, according to data from the US Census Bureau, Texas leads the nation in population gain.

This ties perfectly into our earlier discussion about long-term prospects for multifamily property owners. 

While we’re using Texas as an example, this principle applies more broadly. A surge in population influx leads to increased demand across various sectors: schools, grocery stores, medical facilities, rental properties, and the housing market, both multifamily and single-family alike.

So listen, while the word innovation gets thrown around a lot, we think it’s important to consider forward-thinking strategies, like integrating technology and promoting sustainable development, to stay ahead in the market.

We’re expecting a significant housing shortage within the next two years due to a sharp drop in supply, possibly at levels we’ve never seen before. 

But despite this challenge, there are some factors working in our favor, such as low interest rates, government support (especially during an election year), and smart use of available resources, which could make for a really good period in the real estate sector.

We already talked about how construction projects might face delays, which could cause some distress in the market. But for investors who are paying attention and in the right position (investors like YOU!), this could actually open up some great opportunities.

Staying alert and being in the right place at the right time will be key to success during this period. Despite the potential challenges, there’s a sense of optimism about the future of the real estate industry, with big opportunities expected down the road. 

If we can navigate the next two years successfully, we could be looking at an unprecedented housing shortage, which would only boost our prospects in the market. It’s a wild and exciting time to be alive, and we are so thrilled to be on this journey with you!

According to the Burns Home Builder Survey, builders across the country are projecting double-digit growth, with plans to expand community offerings by 11% by the end of the year.

While some regions experienced a recent slowdown from quick sell-outs, areas like Florida and the Southeast are expecting the highest growth, aiming for a 17% increase in community counts in 2024.